Stem moisture content prediction model for Larix olgensis based on beta regression.

Abstract

To investigate the longitudinal variation patterns of sapwood, heartwood, bark and stem moisture content along the trunk of artificial Larix olgensis, we constructed mixed effect models of moisture content based on beta regression by combining the effects of sampling plot and sample trees. We used two sampling schemes to calibrate the model, without limiting the relative height (Scheme Ⅰ) and with a limiting height of less than 2 m (Scheme II). The results showed that sapwood and stem moisture content increased gradually along the trunk, heartwood moisture content decreased slightly and then increased along the trunk, and bark moisture content increased along the trunk and then levelled off before increasing. Relative height, height to crown base, stand area at breast height per hectare, age, and stand dominant height were main factors driving moisture content of L. olgensis. Scheme Ⅰ showed the stable prediction accuracy when randomly sampling moisture content measurements from 2-3 discs to calibrate the model, with the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of up to 7.2% for stem moisture content (randomly selected 2 discs), and the MAPE of up to 7.4%, 10.5% and 10.5% for sapwood, heartwood and bark moisture content (randomly selected 3 discs), respectively. Scheme Ⅱ was appropriate when sampling moisture content measurements from discs of 1.3 and 2 m height and the MAPE of sapwood, heartwood, bark and stem moisture content reached 7.8%, 11.0%, 10.4% and 7.1%, respectively. The prediction accuracies of all mixed effect beta regression models were better than the base model. The two-level mixed effect beta regression models, considering both plot effect and tree effect, would be suitable for predicting moisture content of each part of L. olgensis well.