Steep past and future population decline in an arctic wader: dynamics and viability of Baltic Temminck's stints Calidris temminckii

Abstract

Decline of migrant wader populations worldwide implies that their demography may be affected by phenomena occurring in a large geographical scale. Knowledge about vital rates affecting population growth and viability helps in finding the processes behind the declines. We estimated the rate of population growth (λ) of a dramatically declined population of Temminck's stints Calidris temminckii using a ten year capture–recapture data. We assessed the viability of the population by projections based on λ and its variation. We also studied sensitivity of λ to changes in vital rates (breeding success, recruitment and adult survival). Both adult and juvenile survival and breeding success were lower than c. 30 years earlier. Adult survival seemed to have dropped during the study period. Population growth appeared strongly negative and viability analyses predicted an almost certain extinction within a few decades. Adult survival formed the main component of the growth rate suggesting that population crash is mainly caused by a drop in adult survival. Still, sensitivity analyses showed that a moderate rise in adult survival or any other single vital rate would not make the population viable. Most probably, survival has dropped due to factors operating along migration routes and wintering areas, at sites shared by birds from other parts of the breeding range. Therefore, the observed population crash and decline in adult survival may indicate parallel changes in poorly monitored arctic populations. Migration habits (continental wide flyways and scattered wintering areas) imply that factors responsible for the drop in survival have a wide geographical range.