Abstract
Recent calls for sustainable practices in industry have highlighted the need to assess the interrelationships between changes in industrial material and energy use, availability and quality of material and energy sources, and emissions. This study provides such an assessment for the US iron and steel industry. It quantifies these relationships using econometric time series analysis of aggregate industry behaviour. The econometric estimates, together with engineering information on production technologies, are embedded in a dynamic computer model and used to simulate material and energy use and emissions profiles for the period 1987–2027. The results indicate that even modest increases in raw steel production rates require unrealistically high rates of iron and steel recycling to reduce energy use and emissions in the long run, even if the historically observed rates of technological substitution and efficiency improvements can be maintained.
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