Staying the Course: Lessons from South Africa for Irreversibility of Nuclear Disarmament

Abstract

ABSTRACT To conceptualise irreversibility of nuclear disarmament, it is better to think about nuclear disarmament as a historical process than a historical moment. I apply a path-dependency lens to do so in the case of South Africa. During the formative phase of its nuclear disarmament, narratives of intent were employed to take advantage of windows of opportunity brought about by historical contingencies and conjectures. It allowed South African decision-makers to set the disarmament course and take the first steps down this path. Timing and sequencing of decisions, actions and announcements played an important role in locking in the behaviour of actors that could have reversed the process in this crucial stage. The choice to stay the disarmament course has since been informed by cost-benefit and normative drivers to reach an equilibrium point. This point reflects a circumscribed understanding of irreversibility of nuclear disarmament for South African policymakers, namely demilitarising fissile material and putting it under international safeguards. This is the status of South Africa’s highly enriched uranium (HEU) today. For South Africa to move towards a broader understanding of irreversibility that includes relinquishing HEU and giving up the right to uranium enrichment will require “coordination” of similar efforts in a broader move to nuclear disarmament by nuclear-armed states.