Abstract
As global temperatures warm and populations and incomes rise, the demand for cooling will soar, creating a positive feedback loop between global warming and electricity-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. This study explores the relationship between temperature, electricity, air conditioning (AC) and CO2 emissions, and the sustainability of cooling in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. With the highest share of AC in household electricity consumption in the world and its already very hot summers warming by 3 °C in many areas over the last 40 years, Saudi Arabia provides an important case study of how the cooling challenge can be managed. Data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF ERA5) is used to illustrate local warming trends (1979–2018) and show the relationship between temperature and power generation within a typical year using hourly data (2011–2015). Using annual data (2010–2018), we then show that since 2016 the rapid growth in the Kingdom’s electricity demand for AC and its associated CO2 emissions have plateaued. This suggests energy efficiency measures, higher electricity prices and a shift from the use of oil towards gas in the power sector are having a positive effect on energy sustainability. We identify key policies and technologies that will be important for the sustainable use of cooling in Saudi Arabia and beyond.
Highlights
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), over the three decades, the use of air conditioners (ACs) is set to soar, becoming one of the top drivers of global electricity demand [1].Global energy demand from air conditioning (AC) is expected to triple from around 2000 terrawatt-hours (TWh) today to 6200 TWh by 2050, adding the equivalent electrical capacity of the United States (U.S.), EuropeanUnion (EU) and Japan combined
This paper provides an overview of climatic conditions in Saudi Arabia and analyzes temperature changes from 1979 to 2018
According to the ECMWF data, Saudi Arabia is in a global hotspot of localized warming, with average summer temperatures in some cities having risen by over 3 ◦ C and by
Summary
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), over the three decades, the use of air conditioners (ACs) is set to soar, becoming one of the top drivers of global electricity demand [1].Global energy demand from ACs is expected to triple from around 2000 terrawatt-hours (TWh) today to 6200 TWh by 2050, adding the equivalent electrical capacity of the United States (U.S.), EuropeanUnion (EU) and Japan combined. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), over the three decades, the use of air conditioners (ACs) is set to soar, becoming one of the top drivers of global electricity demand [1]. Global energy demand from ACs is expected to triple from around 2000 terrawatt-hours (TWh) today to 6200 TWh by 2050, adding the equivalent electrical capacity of the United States (U.S.), European. Between 2015 and 2018 alone, AC consumption in the world’s most 20 prosperous nations increased by around 400 TWh [2]. Earth’s average temperature in July 2019 was about 1 degree Celsius (◦ C) above its twentieth-century average, making it the warmest month on record. Every 1 ◦ C rise in the Earth’s average temperature is estimated to increase AC electrical
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