Stay or leave: How migrants respond to dispersal policies in Beijing

Abstract

AbstractRapid population influx has caused various urban problems in megacities of the global South, which has encouraged some governments to take measures for controlling population growth. As one of the most populous cities and the capital of China, Beijing has recently proposed a series of policy instruments to disperse migrants and prevent population congestion. This study examines the effectiveness of these dispersal policies by answering two specific questions: who left Beijing as a response to what policies, and how policy effects interact with personal willingness. A national survey in 2017 and its follow‐up in 2018 are used for empirical analysis. Results indicate that compared with educational and housing policies, industrial relocation guidelines have more direct effects on impelling migrants to leave Beijing. Those employed in sectors deviating from core functions of the capital are particularly vulnerable to policy shocks. Moreover, a substantial mismatch is observed between the intention and action of migrants to stay in the city, indicating a degree of forced migration in the policy implementation that the policymakers not originally intended. This mismatch and its potential damage to free migration call for more people‐oriented and provulnerable approaches in future urban governance in China and other rapidly urbanizing societies.