Status Quo Bias and Two Point Conversions in Football

Abstract

We derive a sequential game model for the optimal use of the two point conversion in late game situations in NFL and NCAA Division I-A football that allows for team heterogeneity. We show that teams who are more successful running the football are also more successful converting two point attempts. This leads to team-specific differences in optimal strategy choices. We find that these differences do not influence actual in-game decisions; rather, coaches are almost universally guided by “the chart,” a heuristic developed for teams with average conversion probabilities. This is consistent with a status-quo bias, where coaches are less willing to deviate from the conventional approach, even when it is optimal to do so. We also find that there are significant gains to be made by following a different approach.