Status and Prospects of Federal Budget Sustainability in the New Environment

Abstract

The sustainability of the federal budget is currently subject to multiple risks. Despite a temporary increase in oil prices, federal budget revenues are declining rapidly. As correlation analysis has shown, oil and gas revenues of the federal budget become more volatile during structural crises. At the same time, non-oil and gas revenues are declining. The instability of the foreign policy situation and the ongoing military actions greatly increase the risks of increased federal budget expenditures. In the short term, the budget deficit can be covered by the accumulated liquid reserves of the National Welfare Fund. However, in the longterm perspective, the restrictions affecting Russia’s sustainable economic growth will have an impact on the fiscal sphere. The government will have to take unpopular measures to reduce expenditures and raise taxes on the non-oil and gas sector in order to maintain the stability of the public finance system.