Statistics on the International Trade Administration's Global Markets Program

Abstract

Recent mandates for evidence-based policy choices from both the Executive and Legislative branches of the federal government underscore the importance of understanding the relationship between program participation and outcomes. In this paper, I examine the correlations between participation in an export-promotion program with export and employment growth. I use this experience to provide more general lessons learned about combining program data on treatments with Census Bureau micro data that can be used as a control. Note that the analysis in this paper does not constitute a thorough evaluation of the overall effectiveness of Global Markets program. Rather, the paper provides rigorous statistical evidence on correlations of a subset of program services and select business outcomes.The mission of the U.S. Department of Commerce’s Global Markets program within the International Trade Administration is to assist and advocate for U.S. businesses in international markets to increase U.S. exports, and by extension, employment. It pursues this mission by providing U.S. companies with counseling, market research, commercial diplomacy trade events and other services. This study looks at a very small part of the overall program. While I cannot rule out several sources of bias, model results show that program participation is positively and significantly correlated with export growth. Many of the models also find a positive and significant relationship between employment growth and counseling, especially for small and medium-sized enterprises (500 employees or less).The paper concludes with a “Lessons Learned” section that highlights areas where measurement and data collection can be improved to facilitate building evidence on program effectiveness.