Statistics of the earthquakes in the central Himalaya and its vicinity in last 56 years, with an emphasis in the 25 April 2015 Gorkha, Nepal earthquake

Abstract

To understand the variation of stress levels in the region 80°E – 89°E and 26°N – 31°N, the statistical analysis of earthquake frequency-magnitude distribution and spatio-temporal variation of fractal correlation dimension of earthquake epicenter distribution are estimated. The analysis is carried out on declusterised catalogue containing 1185 events of 56 years from February 1964 to November 2020. The study area is divided into three regions the western Nepal and vicinity (Region A), central Nepal and vicinity (Region B) and eastern Nepal and vicinity (Region C), respectively. The magnitude of completeness (Mc) varies from 3.6 to 4.0 for the study period. The spatial fractal dimension (Dc) and b-value are calculated as 1.89 ± 0.02 and 0.68 ± 0.03 for the western Nepal, 1.76 ± 0.01 and 0.60 ± 0.05 for the central Nepal, whereas they are estimated as 1.85 ± 0.02 and 0.63 ± 0.03 for the eastern part of the Nepal. The b-values obtained for all three regions are very low comparing to global average value of 1. The time clustering of the events in the respective regions are 0.26 ± 0.003, 0.31 ± 0.004 and 0.26 ± 0.02 as indicated by temporal fractal dimension (Dt). The higher Dc, lower b and Dt values associated with the regions indicate high stress concentration and stronger epicenter clustering in these regions. The strongly increasing trend of fractal dimension and strongly decreasing trend of b-value show the high probabilities of occurring the large earthquake in both central Nepal (82.5°E – 85.5°E and 27.5°N – 30°N) and eastern Nepal (85.5°E – 88.2°E and 26.45°N – 28.6°N) as compared to western Nepal (80°E – 82.5°E and 28°N – 30.5°N). This statistical analysis of spatial and temporal characteristics of the earthquake activity may give significant signs of the future seismic hazard along central Himalaya region.