Statistics and Spatial–Temporal Structure of Ground Acceleration Caused by Earthquakes in the North-Western Pacific

Abstract

The possibilities of statistical estimation of quantiles of predicted maximum peak ground acceleration are discussed. The estimation is based on the theory of extreme values. The quantiles of maximum peak ground acceleration are calculated for a spatial grid covering the territory of high seismicity regions of Japan, Kuril Islands, and Kamchatka. A new phenomenon is observed: spatial spots of increased ground acceleration showing essential inhomogeneity not only across the deep ocean trench, but as well along its extension. Some spots exist during all observation time (130 years), whereas some other can disappear or appear during this time interval. The position of majority of spots is correlated with the concentration of underwater sea mounts at the adjacent part of the oceanic plate. The subduction of these sea mounts could induce an increased seismicity. A correlation of spots with sites of increased (Mb − Mw) values is observed also, which can be caused by an increased friction between the plates. Stable spots of higher acceleration are observed for different earthquake catalogs and various time periods. Our results make advisable using the extreme values theory technique for statistical estimation of seismic hazard, in particular, for characterization of seismic activity spots.