Statistics and Genealogy: A Match Made in Heaven? The Forecasting and Inference Tool, an Application of the Central Limit Theorem in Genealogical Research

Abstract

Applications of econometrics and statistics are widely used as tools in many disciplines as a means to provide quantitative analysis to investigate hypotheses. Examples include economics, sociology, and cliometrics. While so far in a genealogy such an approach has not been attempted, in this exploratory work we suggest some possibilities for the application of such quantitative tools to the subject. In doing so, we introduce and discuss the Forecasting and Inference Tool, an application of this framework, and a tool that can help genealogists to be more productive in their fieldwork by estimating years of death, marriage, and birth.