Abstract
Mountain river basins provide the majority of western North America with snowmelt runoff water resources throughout the late spring–early summer snowmelt season. However, this snowmelt water resource is extremely vulnerable to any changes in air temperature and precipitation. Studies of larger mountain river basins have projected potentially warmer and drier climates in the future, but the resolution of these studies is often incompatible with smaller basins and subsequent water resources planning. The purpose of this study was to test the potential of increasing the resolution of future climate projections by combining a series of surface and upper-level atmospheric datasets using a statistical downscaling technique and to then project how the future climate could change for a typical small snowmelt fed mountain basin in western North America, the Animas River Basin, Colorado, over the course of the 21st century. Results indicated that, in general, a warmer and drier climate may occur, with this technique more effectively capturing changes in air temperature over precipitation. With this kind of data at hand, increasing levels of sustainable water resource planning for a range of future climate scenarios may be achieved for mountain river basins of a similar scale.
Highlights
IntroductionThe coverage of snowpack in upper river basins strongly controls the availability of water for the proceeding spring and summer months (Barnett et al 2004; Stewart et al 2005; Bedford and Douglass 2008)
Snowmelt is an important source of water for many mountain river basins across the western United States
Following statistical downscaling of air temperature and precipitation across the Animas River Basin it may be concluded that the basinwide climate could potentially change to varying degrees depending on the greenhouse gas emissions scenario used
Summary
The coverage of snowpack in upper river basins strongly controls the availability of water for the proceeding spring and summer months (Barnett et al 2004; Stewart et al 2005; Bedford and Douglass 2008). From an ecological point of view these potential changes in local hydroclimatology would impact both spawning times and habitat availability for various aquatic species through flow alterations and increases in water temperature. This has already been documented in many stream systems throughout the Rocky Mountains, western United States (Covich et al 2003; Leppi et al 2012)
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