Statistical validation of a solar wind propagation model from 1 to 10 AU

Abstract

A one‐dimensional (1‐D) numerical magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) code is applied to propagate the solar wind from 1 AU through 10 AU, i.e., beyond the heliocentric distance of Saturn's orbit, in a non‐rotating frame of reference. The time‐varying boundary conditions at 1 AU are obtained from hourly solar wind data observed near the Earth. Although similar MHD simulations have been carried out and used by several authors, very little work has been done to validate the statistical accuracy of such solar wind predictions. In this paper, we present an extensive analysis of the prediction efficiency, using 12 selected years of solar wind data from the major heliospheric missions Pioneer, Voyager, and Ulysses. We map the numerical solution to each spacecraft in space and time, and validate the simulation, comparing the propagated solar wind parameters with in‐situ observations. We do not restrict our statistical analysis to the times of spacecraft alignment, as most of the earlier case studies do. Our superposed epoch analysis suggests that the prediction efficiency is significantly higher during periods with high recurrence index of solar wind speed, typically in the late declining phase of the solar cycle. Among the solar wind variables, the solar wind speed can be predicted to the highest accuracy, with a linear correlation of 0.75 on average close to the time of opposition. We estimate the accuracy of shock arrival times to be as high as 10–15 hours within ±75 d from apparent opposition during years with high recurrence index. During solar activity maximum, there is a clear bias for the model to predicted shocks arriving later than observed in the data, suggesting that during these periods, there is an additional acceleration mechanism in the solar wind that is not included in the model.