Statistical techniques for predicting rupture risk in abdominal aortic aneurysms: A contribution based on bootstrap.

Abstract

The morphometry of abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAA) has been recognized as one of the main factors that may predispose them to rupture. The need to quantify the morphometry of AAA on a patient-specific basis constitutes a valuable tool for assisting in rupture risk prediction. Previous results of this research group have determined the correlations between hemodynamic stresses and aneurysm morphometry by means of the Pearson coefficient. The present work aims to find how the AAA morphology correlates with the hemodynamic stresses acting on the arterial wall. To do so, the potential of the bootstrap technique has been explored. Bootstrap works appropriately in applications where few data are available (13 patient-specific AAA models were simulated). The methodology developed can be considered a contribution to predicting the hemodynamic stresses from the size and shape indices. The present work explores the use of a specific statistical technique (the bootstrap technique) to predict, based on morphological correlations, the patient-specific aneurysm rupture risk, provide greater understanding of this complex phenomenon that can bring about improvements in the clinical management of aneurysmatic patients. The results obtained using the bootstrap technique have greater reliability and robustness than those obtained by regression analysis using the Pearson coefficient, thus allowing to obtain more reliable results from the characteristics of the samples used, such as their small size and high variability. Additionally, it could be an indicator that other indices, such as AAA length, deformation rate, saccular index, and asymmetry, are important.