Statistical study on the impact of different meteorological changes on the spread of COVID-19 pandemic in Egypt and its latitude.

Abstract

More than 1 million illnesses and 70,000 deaths were reported due to novel COVID-19 by the end of the first quarter of 2020. In April 2020, the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a pandemic. The striking resemblance between COVID-19 and its forerunners SARS and MERS, as well as earlier findings on the impact of meteorological conditions on the spread of SARS and MERS, prompted researchers to investigate the relationship between meteorological conditions and the spread of COVID-19. In this work, we statistically studied the effect of different meteorological parameters such as average temperature, humidity, dew point, and wind speed on the spread of COVID-19 pandemic in Egypt and its latitude (Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey). Our findings revealed that there is a correlation between several meteorological parameters and the spread of COVID-19, but that, contrary to popular belief, the virus does not disappear when the temperature rises. Our theory is that either the virus became active in Egypt and its latitude as the temperature rose, or the humidity became unstable when the temperature rose during the summer season. A log-linear quasi-Poisson regression model was used to estimate the relationship between the studied metrological parameters and the spread of COVID-19. The findings of the study will have ramifications for future control and prevention efforts in Egypt and its latitude.Graphic abstract