Statistical significance of theoretical predictions: A new dimension in nuclear structure theories (II)

Abstract

We present examples and illustrate associated tests of statistical significance of the parameter fitting procedures in the nuclear mean-field context using a phenomenological toy-model based on the spherical Woods-Saxon Hamiltonian. We calculate the variance-covariance matrix and compare the standard estimates of the confidence intervals (and more generally – the uncertainty distributions) based on the standard χ2-fitting as opposed to a more general Monte-Carlo simulations. We give arguments for the superiority of the latter approach.