Abstract
Monsoons are the life and soul of India’s financial aspects, especially that of agribusiness in deciding cropping patterns. Around 80% of the yearly precipitation occurs from June to September amid monsoon season across India. Thus, its seasonal mean precipitation is crucial for agriculture and the national water supply. From the start of the 19th century, several studies have been conducted on the possible increments in Indian summer monsoon precipitation in the future. Unfortunately, none of them has endeavoured to discover the models whose yield give the best fit to the observed data. Here some statistical tests are performed to quantify the models of Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project 5 (CMIP5). Then, after, the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) method is used to select optimum models. It shows that four models, CCSM4, CESM1-CAM5, GFDL-CM3, and GFDL-ESM2G, best capture the pattern in Indian summer monsoon rainfall over the historical period (1871–2005). Further, Student’s t-test is utilized to estimate the significant changes in meteorological subdivisions of selected optimum models. Also, our results reveal the Indian meteorological subdivisions which are liable to encounter significant changes in mean at confidence levels that differ from 80% to 99%.
Highlights
Even post industrialization and fast development in the administration division, India transcendently remains a farming nation
Our results reveal the Indian meteorological subdivisions which are liable to encounter significant changes in mean at confidence levels that differ from 80% to 99%
TOPSIS implies that any given decision matrix with m alternatives and n attributes can be represented by points on an n-dimensional hyper-plane with m points, with the location of these points being given by the value of their attributes
Summary
Even post industrialization and fast development in the administration division, India transcendently remains a farming nation. It is basic for government bodies to keep a nearby tab on the climate change patterns, the changes in monsoon rainfall. This is more important in today’s scenario as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports a significant change in the worldwide air temperatures amid the 21st century. This is going to have an immediate bearing on the season and intensity of rainfall the world over. Suitable techniques are required to precisely anticipate these changing patterns and any climate conditions connected with it
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