Abstract
Retail trade turnover represents one of the most fundamental socio-economic indicators. Constant monitoring of such indicators has a pivotal role in modernization of the Russian economy. Retail trade turnover reflects countries’ economic capacity and standard of living. This paper proposes a statistically significant econometric model of the retail trade turnover dependence with respect to different factors. Such factors as consumer prices index, unemployment level and average monthly designed salary were taken as the explanatory variables. The variables were selected based on Granger causality test and time series analysis of several socio-economic indicators. For each explanatory variable, a statistically significant model ARIMA (1, 1, 0) was constructed, with the help of which the predicted values of the explanatory variables for October, November and December 2019 were calculated, which were used to forecast the retail turnover for these months.
Highlights
In Russia today retail trade is one of the fast-developing industries with good prospects
This study has identified that retail turnover for the previous 20 years has been demonstrating the stable trend towards growth
- the retail turnover model, which is statistically significant, with good forecasting properties was built in the course of this research;
Summary
In Russia today retail trade is one of the fast-developing industries with good prospects. The Russian retail trade sector is characterized by the emergence of new efficient sales techniques, the increase in retail areas, and rapid growth in Internet sales. Big chain stores emerge and intensively develop. The growth in retail turnover gives rise to the profits of commercial organizations, including small business firms. In turn, promotes the growth in population wealth and provides new jobs. In 2018 retail and wholesale trade share comprised 12,8% of GDP [1]. That outnumbered the contribution from all other sectors. Standard of living and economic capacity of the country are determined by such indicators as volumes, dynamics and structure of retail trade [2]
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