Abstract
The influence of the seasonal cycle on the sample correlation between two time series is discussed. It is shown that any narrow band energetic signal common to both time series can dramatically reduce the statistical reliability of time-lagged sample cross correlation values by reducing the effective number of degrees of freedom in the records. The results are used to discuss the statistical analysis of wind-forced transport of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current through Drake Passage given in a recent paper by Wearn and Baker (Deep-Sea Research, 27, 875–888, 1980). It is suggested that their high correlation between Drake Passage transport and circumpolar averaged zonal wind stress may largely be due to the presence of a strong semi-annual signal in both time series. This reduces the statistical significance of their conclusion that this reflects a dynamical coupling between the atmosphere and the ocean. Their conclusion that the southern hemisphere analyzed with fields are of high quality (based on the high correlation with Drake Passage transport) is also questioned.
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