Abstract
The periglacial realm is a major part of the cryosphere, covering a quarter of Earth’s land surface. Cryogenic land surface processes (LSPs) control landscape development, ecosystem functioning and climate through biogeochemical feedbacks, but their response to contemporary climate change is unclear. Here, by statistically modelling the current and future distributions of four major LSPs unique to periglacial regions at fine scale, we show fundamental changes in the periglacial climate realm are inevitable with future climate change. Even with the most optimistic CO2 emissions scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6) we predict a 72% reduction in the current periglacial climate realm by 2050 in our climatically sensitive northern Europe study area. These impacts are projected to be especially severe in high-latitude continental interiors. We further predict that by the end of the twenty-first century active periglacial LSPs will exist only at high elevations. These results forecast a future tipping point in the operation of cold-region LSP, and predict fundamental landscape-level modifications in ground conditions and related atmospheric feedbacks.
Highlights
Background dataMonthly average temperatures (1981–2010, our baseline period) were modelled across the study domain based on 942 meteorological station (daily data from European Climate Assessment and Dataset[41] (ECA&D)) and generalized additive modelling; as implemented in R-package mgcv[42] version 1.8-7) utilizing variables of geographical location, topography and water cover[43, 44]
land surface processes (LSPs) create surface geomorphological features which are unique to periglacial regions including patterned ground and hummocky terrain associated with cryoturbation, gelifluction terraces and lobes, nivation features associated with erosion by snow patches and palsa mires which develop through permafrost mounding[10] (Fig. 1)
The analysis of the current periglacial realm closely corresponds to earlier definitions[1, 20, 30], marking mean annual air temperature (MAAT) of +2 °C as a rough upper limit for cryogenic ground processes (Fig. 3)
Summary
Background dataMonthly average temperatures (1981–2010, our baseline period) were modelled across the study domain (spatial resolution 50 × 50 m) based on 942 meteorological station (daily data from European Climate Assessment and Dataset[41] (ECA&D)) and generalized additive modelling; as implemented in R-package mgcv[42] version 1.8-7) utilizing variables of geographical location, topography (elevation, potential radiation, relative elevation) and water cover[43, 44]. LSPs create surface geomorphological features which are unique to periglacial regions including patterned ground and hummocky terrain associated with cryoturbation, gelifluction terraces and lobes, nivation features associated with erosion by snow patches and palsa mires which develop through permafrost mounding[10] (Fig. 1).
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
