Abstract
The aim of this article is to present statistical forecasting models concerning the dynamics of Artemisia pollen seasons in Wroclaw, including the start and end, the date of maximum pollen concentration and seasonal pollen index (SPI). For statistical evaluation, use was made of aerobiological and meteorological data from the last 10 years (2002–2011). Based on this data, agroclimatic indicators, i.e. crop heat units (CHUs), were determined for various averaging periods. The beginning of the Artemisia pollen season in the studied time period, on average, took place on 23 June. Its length usually varied between 26 and 45 days, and maximum daily concentrations occurred between 31 July and 18 August. It was found that the beginning of the pollen season depends, above all, on the values of CHUs and photothermal unit (PTU) (p < 0.05) in the period from March to June, for various thermal thresholds. The date of maximum daily concentration correlates with sunshine duration, PTU and air temperature for June and July (p < 0.05). On the other hand, SPI is connected with thermal variables, i.e. average, maximum and minimum air temperatures and CHUs and heliothermal unit (HTU) for July (p < 0.05) and the beginning of spring. Based on the correlation analysis and the chosen variables, regression models for the beginning date of Artemisia pollen season and SPI were prepared, which were then verified by using leave-one-out cross-validation. A better fit between modelled and actual values was found for the analysis concerning the season start date than for the SPI.
Highlights
The Artemisia L. pollen is one of the three major aeroallergens in Central and Eastern Europe and is the main cause of summertime respiratory illnesses and conjunctivitis (D’Amato et al 1998)
The data presented in this paper represent the step towards forecasting the Artemisia pollen season in Wrocław, showing the relationship between different aspects of pollen appearance and specific meteorological variables
There were no statistically significant dependencies for meteorological factors that took place just before the beginning of the pollen season. Another factor that strongly depends on meteorological conditions is seasonal pollen index (SPI)
Summary
The Artemisia L. pollen is one of the three major aeroallergens in Central and Eastern Europe and is the main cause of summertime respiratory illnesses and conjunctivitis (D’Amato et al 1998). Vulgaris L., Artemisia campestris L. and Artemisia absynthium L.) are common anemophilous plants (Tutin et al 1980) that are connected with human habitation. They preferably grow on ruderal and disturbed soils, in urban and suburban areas, at industrial and building sites, in rural areas or countryside, around farms and along roads. Vegetative growth of A. vulgaris occurs from early spring to late autumn. The first flowers appear on the plant after 4 months from the start of growth and mature in late summer into early autumn. The required photoperiod for flowering was found to be 4– 16 h for 4 weeks (Henderson and Weller 1985; Barney and DiTommaso 2003)
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