Statistical Modeling of the Bering Strait Throughflow for Operational Sea Ice Forecasting in the Chukchi Sea

Abstract

We utilize statistically modeled ocean heat transports through the Bering Strait along with additional predictors to create skillful predictions of sea ice retreat and advance dates in the Chukchi Sea. Interannual variability of June and September oceanic heat transports through the strait can be captured using modeled Ekman transports, surface winds, and sea surface temperatures. At one-month leads, our models can explain 41% and 79% of sea ice retreat and advance date variance with root mean squared errors (RMSEs) of 10.2 and 12.8 days respectively. At 4-month leads, our models can respectively capture 37% and 73% of sea ice retreat and advance date variance with RMSEs of 8.5 and 14.6 days. These findings offer a path toward operational forecasts of sea ice retreat and advance dates in the Chukchi Sea in the absence of direct, readily available observations of heat transports in the strait.