Statistical modeling of monthly streamflow using time series and artificial neural network models: Hindiya Barrage as a case study

Abstract

Abstract Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Box-Jenkins models combine the autoregressive and moving average models to a stationary time series after the appropriate transformation, while the nonlinear autoregressive (N.A.R.) or the autoregressive neural network (ARNN) models are of the kind of multi-layer perceptron (M.L.P.), which compose an input layer, hidden layer and an output layer. Monthly streamflow at the downstream of the Euphrates River (Hindiya Barrage) /Iraq for the period January 2000 to December 2019 was modeled utilizing ARIMA and N.A.R. time series models. The predicted Box-Jenkins model was ARIMA (1,1,0) (0,1,1), while the predicted artificial neural network (N.A.R.) model was (M.L.P. 1-3-1). The results of the study indicate that the traditional Box-Jenkins model was more accurate than the N.A.R. model in modeling the monthly streamflow of the studied case. Performing a one-step-ahead forecast during the year 2019, the forecast accuracy between the forecasted and recorded monthly streamflow for both models was as follows: the Box-Jenkins model gave root mean squared error (RMSE = 48.7) and the coefficient of determination = 0.801), while the (NAR) model gave (RMSE = 93.4) and = 0.269). Future projection of the monthly stream flow through the year 2025, utilizing the Box-Jenkins model, indicated the existence of long-term periodicity.