Statistical Modeling of Institutional Transformations Using Panel Data

Abstract

The article is devoted to the important problem of assessment of institutional transformation by modeling of panel data. It is demonstrated that multidimensional statistical methods allow for the reasonable selection of the probabilistic statistical model that fits best to output statistical data and description of the real behavior of the studied set of objects than the great many other similar models, and for the assessment of reliability and accuracy of conclusions made on the basis of limited statistical information. The proposed theoretical model reveals the statistical impact of social globalization, openness of trade, property rights, human development and share of services in GDP on economic growth in countries differentiated by economic performance.
 Of the institutional factors with an impact on economic growth, found by the study, statistically significant are both traditional factors (index of property right, GDP by PPP) and ones implicit in the globalizing economy (Internet users, index of social globalization, share of services in GDP). It allows for the conclusion that economic growth in countries differentiated by economic performance is conditional on institutes. Property rights still remain to be the key factor for effective institutes, and their impact determines the future development trajectory. The significant role belongs to openness of trade, with its positive statistical impact on economic growth. The positive statistical impact of social globalization is also identified.
 Statistical significance of the growing share of services in GDP is demonstrated, which is an attribute of globalization. Special emphasis in statistical modeling is made on the human factor measured by human development index. This index has supreme significance in the complex process of transition from extractive institutes to inclusive ones, because the effectiveness of transformation process depends on the human.