Statistical Modeling and Analysis of Satellite Failure Based on 2-Weibull Segmented Model

Jingjing Wang,Chao Zhou

doi:10.1109/access.2021.3113155

Abstract

Statistical modeling and analysis of satellite failure is an effective way to master the satellite operating status, and the results can provide important theoretical basis for the performance improvement of satellite reliability. In view of the dual-period characteristics of satellite failure distribution, a 2-Weibull segmented model for statistical modeling of satellite failure has been proposed in this paper. In order to improve the robustness of the parameter estimation for 2-Weibull segmented model, a parameter estimation method for 2-Weibull segmented model based on least squares Hough transform algorithm is continued to be proposed in this paper. And the feasibility and effectiveness of the parameter estimation method are verified by simulation experiments. The 2-Weibull segmented model is used for statistical modeling of 1584 satellite failure samples. The results show that, compared with the traditional single Weibull distribution model, the 2-Weibull segmented model proposed in this paper improves the fitting accuracy of satellite failure distribution by 46.15%.

Highlights

With the rapid development of space technology, the number of on-orbit satellites is increasing gradually, and the application fields of satellites have gradually expanded to the positioning and navigation, remote sensing, military reconnaissance, communications, et al The reliability performance is an important guarantee for the safe and stable satellite operations
Based on the above analysis, the parameter estimation method for 2-Weibull segmented model must have strong robustness. It can realize the accurate identification of the failure periods, and on the other hand, it can resist the influences of abnormal values caused by the wrong data or random failure events on parameter estimation
By introducing the Hough transform algorithm into the least squares logarithm algorithm, a new parameter estimation method for 2-Weibull segmented failure rate function based on least squares Hough transform algorithm has been proposed in this paper

Summary

INTRODUCTION

With the rapid development of space technology, the number of on-orbit satellites is increasing gradually, and the application fields of satellites have gradually expanded to the positioning and navigation, remote sensing, military reconnaissance, communications, et al The reliability performance is an important guarantee for the safe and stable satellite operations. 5) For the identified two groups of (ln ti ,ln (ti )) data series belonging to the early failure period and random failure period, the parameters of 2-Weibull segmented failure rate function, which include 1, 1 and 0 (or 2 ) , are estimated respectively by the linear least squares algorithm. Based on least squares Hough transform algorithm, satellite failure rate data of t 0.0055a 2.9397a are used for the parameter estimation of 2-Weibull segmented failure rate function belonging to the early failure period. Based on least squares Hough transform algorithm, satellite failure rate data of t 2.9397a 7.4027a are used for the parameter estimation of 2-Weibull segmented failure rate function belonging to the random failure period.

COMPARISON AND VERIFICATION

Findings

CONCLUSION