Statistical model and assessment of geo-ecological changes in Al-Hoviz alluvial marches in southeastern Iraq and further forecasting of the water level in them

Abstract

This study included the developed statistical models, factor analysis was performed, and the dynamics of climatic-hydrological characteristics was predicted using the Holt-Winters method in the Minitab 18 and «Statistica» v. The statistical model is based on the analysis of the following data: characteristics of surface water - electrical conductivity (EC), total amount of dissolved solids (TDS), water temperature (t °C), water flow rate, m3/s (Q), water surface area of Al-Hoviz AM, km2 (F), water volume of Al-Hoviz AM, km3(WAM), water level of Al-Hoviz AM, m (H), normalized vegetation index (NDVI); climatic factors in Al-Hoviz AM for the period from 2010 to 2019 Based on the found interaction of factors and indicators, we build a model of the impact of indicators on NDVI, Wam, F and rank them according to the strength of the impact. Main effects plots for each of NDVI, WAM, F as independent variables. All these definitions of the interaction of indicators with each other determine the purpose of the model. From this visualization of the model, you can clearly highlight the factors that need to be monitored especially carefully, due to their strong impact on the study area. So, WAM and F are most strongly with a direct connection dependent on precipitation and Q of the Al-Musharrah river (the main branch from the Tigris River), and with the strongest feedback - the temperature, somewhat less with a direct connection, they are influenced by the Q of the Al-Kahlaa river (the main branch from the Tigris River), and with feedback - the wind speed. Based on the identified relationships and interactions of climatic and hydrological factors, a forecast of changes in the water level of Al-Hoviz AM was made up to 2029. While maintaining the current situation, the tendency of the water level in AM will maintain a descending value.