Abstract

We previously reported use of genotype surveillance data to predict outbreaks among incident tuberculosis clusters. We propose a method to detect possible outbreaks among endemic tuberculosis clusters. We detected 15 possible outbreaks, of which 10 had epidemiologic data or whole-genome sequencing results. Eight outbreaks were corroborated.

Highlights

  • We previously reported use of genotype surveillance data to predict outbreaks among incident tuberculosis clusters

  • We constructed a standard list to meet our definition of an outbreak, consisting of outbreaks investigated by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) [7] and clusters with epidemiologic data and whole-genome sequencing (WGS) results

  • We provide an epidemiologic curve (Figure 1) of the marginal cluster detected as a possible outbreak with WGS results and epidemiologic links reported

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Summary

Introduction

We previously reported use of genotype surveillance data to predict outbreaks among incident tuberculosis clusters. Unexpected growth in a prevalent cluster was defined as the earliest quarter where the number of TB cases exceeded the 95th percentile on the basis of fit to the previous 8 quarters (baseline period). We used epidemiologic data from onsite investigations by CDC scientists in conjunction with local TB programs and WGS results to refute or corroborate our classification of possible outbreaks.

Results
Conclusion
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