Abstract
Weather-based prediction models for pests (aphids, thrips and leafhoppers) in cotton crop were developed on various aspects viz., crop age at first appearance of pests and maximum population of pests at Akola (Maharashtra). Historical data from 1997-98 to 2010-11 on population of aphids, thrips and leafhoppers along with weekly weather data (two weeks before sowing) were considered fordevelopment of models and validated for the subsequent three years from 2011-12 to 2013-14. Weatherbased indices were generated, which were used as explanatory variables in development of models. The study reveals that the prediction for crop age at first appearance of pests, crop age at peak population of pests, and maximum population of pests can be issued at least two to three weeks in advance.
Highlights
Bt-cotton was introduced during 2002 in India and currently it occupies over 93 per cent of the area under cotton cultivation
Introduction of several Bt-cotton hybrids effectively protected the crop from bollworms, especially Helicoverpa armigera that helped in reducing use of chemical insecticide and input cost besides preventing yield losses
The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and root mean squared error (RMSE) are 16.7 and 4.4, respectively, which are least among the different periods considered for model development
Summary
Bt-cotton was introduced during 2002 in India and currently it occupies over 93 per cent of the area under cotton cultivation. The pest data comprised of weekly population of aphids, leafhoppers and thrips in cotton crop from 1997-98 to 2013-14 for Akola (Maharashtra).
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