Statistical forecasting of U.S. and Central African Republic net migration

Abstract

Immigration is a very important link in the current international society. This paper will study and predict the net immigration of the United States and the Central African Republic through two different models- drift model and ARIMA model, and to further explore the trends and influencing factors of migration between these countries. The results show that from 1960 to 2021, net migration from the United States and the Central African Republic showed very different trends. The United States, as a developed country, attracts a large number of immigrants from all over the world, while the Central African Republic, as a developing country, the flow of immigrants is mainly affected by economic, political and social factors in the region. Therefore, it can be seen that developing countries and developed countries have different impacts on the number of immigrants. This study provides a basis for further understanding of population migration and net migration of United States and Central African Republic.