Statistical-Dynamical Forecasting of Sub-Seasonal North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Occurrence

Abstract

AbstractWhile previous research on sub-seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) occurrence has mostly focused on either the validation of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, or the development of statistical models trained on past data, the present study combines both approaches to a statistical–dynamical model for probabilistic forecasts in the North Atlantic basin. Although state-of-the-art NWP models have been shown to lack predictive skill with respect to sub-seasonal weekly TC occurrence, they may predict the environmental conditions sufficiently well to generate predictors for a statistical model. Therefore, an extensive predictor set was generated, including predictor groups representing the climatological seasonal cycle (CSC), oceanic, and tropical conditions, tropical wave modes, as well as extratropical influences, respectively. The developed hybrid forecast model is systematically validated for the Gulf of Mexico and Central Main Development Region (MDR) for lead times up to five weeks. Moreover, its performance is compared against a statistical approach trained on past data, as well as against different climatological and NWP benchmarks. For sub-seasonal lead times, the CSC models are found to outperform the NWP models, which quickly loose skill within the first two forecast weeks, even in case of recalibration. The statistical models trained on past data increase skill over the CSC models, whereas even greater improvements in skill are gained by the hybrid approach out to week five. The vast majority of the additional sub-seasonal skill in the hybrid model, relative to the CSC model, could be attributed to the tropical (oceanic) conditions in the Gulf of Mexico (Central MDR).