STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING USING REGRESSION NONPARAMETRIC OF FOURIER SERIES-POLYNOMIAL LOCAL OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Abstract

Indonesia is a tropical country that is vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Climate change causes an effect on the level of comfort (heat stress) that can affect the level of human immunity, one of the indices to calculate the level of human comfort (heat stress) is the Thermal Humidity Index (THI). Climate change scenarios modeled in Earth System Models (ESMs). ESM has a coarse resolution and is subject to considerable bias. This research is using secondary data. The data source used in this study comes from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). This research will focus on projected heat stress which is calculated based on THI with the temperature and humidity variables. Therefore, in this research to reduce the bias correction method used Statistical Downscaling (SD) and nonparametric regression. The results of the bias correction using the Statistical Downscaling (SD) method and Nonparametric Regression Fourier-Polynomial Local Series in this study the R-square value for Relative Humidity yields 95% and for Temperature yields 94%. The projection of climate change based on the value of the Temperature Humidity Index (THI) in Indonesia in the category of 50% of the population of Indonesians feeling comfortable conditions occurred in 2006-2059. Then the population of citizens in Indonesia felt uncomfortable conditions occurred in 2060 to 2100 with a THI value of 27.0730°C - 27.7800°C.