Abstract
We investigate the major characteristics of the occurrences, causes of and counter measures for aircraft accidents in Japan. We apply statistical data analysis and mathematical modeling techniques to determine the relations among economic growth, aviation demand, the frequency of aircraft/helicopter accidents, the major characteristics of the occurrence intervals of accidents, and the number of fatalities due to accidents. The statistical model analysis suggests that the occurrence intervals of accidents and the number of fatalities can be explained by probability distributions such as the exponential distribution and the negative binomial distribution, respectively. We show that countermeasures for preventing accidents have been developed in every aircraft model, and thus they have contributed to a significant decrease in the number of accidents in the last three decades. We find that the major cause of accidents involving large airplanes has been weather, while accidents involving small airplanes and helicopters are mainly due to the pilot error. We also discover that, with respect to accidents mainly due to pilot error, there is a significant decrease in the number of accidents due to the aging of airplanes, whereas the number of accidents due to weather has barely declined. We further determine that accidents involving small and large airplanes mostly occur during takeoff and landing, whereas those involving helicopters are most likely to happen during flight. In order to decrease the number of accidents, i) enhancing safety and security by further developing technologies for aircraft, airports and air control radars, ii) establishing and improving training methods for crew including pilots, mechanics and traffic controllers, iii) tightening public rules, and iv) strengthening efforts made by individual aviation-related companies are absolutely necessary.
Highlights
Plane crashes, excluding those related to the Self-Defence Forces, have occurred more than 10 times a year on average during the period from 1974 to 2010 in Japan
Airplane and Helicopter Accidents In Article 76, Paragraph 1 of the Civil Aeronautics Act established in 1952, aircraft accidents are defined as follows: i) crash, collision and fire on an aircraft, ii) casualties and damage to properties due to the aircraft accident, iii) missing and dead among those who were inside the aircraft, iv) minor collision with other aircraft, and v) other aircraft-related accidents specified in the ministerial ordinance of the MLIT
We attempted to investigate the past trend of accidents occurring in Japan for major air traffic services such as small and large airplanes and helicopters, respectively, and countermeasures taken to prevent aircraft accidents
Summary
Plane crashes, excluding those related to the Self-Defence Forces, have occurred more than 10 times a year on average during the period from 1974 to 2010 in Japan. We apply statistical data analysis and mathematical modeling techniques to determine the relationships among economic growth, aviation demand, the frequency of aircraft/helicopter accidents, the intervals of accidents, and the number of fatalities. Chang and Yang [2] classified survival factors for in-flight safety into the following categories: design and equipment of the aircraft, education for pilots and crew and cooperation among them, passengers’ behavior and safety education for them, and the ability to cope with emergencies They selected 47 items from these categories and ranked them in terms of the level of importance. We utilize aircraft accident data regarding Japan’s major means of air transportation such as small and large airplanes and helicopters over the past 37 years. In the Summary and Conclusions we discuss the major findings, and highlight the necessary issues that should be included in countermeasures for preventing accidents for small and large airplanes and helicopters
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