Statistical Cause Analysis and Potential Countermeasures for Commercial Motor Vehicle Collisions in China

Abstract

The rate of incidents involving commercial vehicles is a particular concern in China, accounting for an estimated 35.8% of all crashes in 2004 and over 30% in 2005. Commercial motor vehicle safety issues in China were studied by collecting data from Jingjintang freeway, which serves as the primary high-speed link between the cities of Beijing and Tianjin, China. For this study, heavy vehicles refer to vehicles with a gross weight of at least 20,000 ponds or vehicles designed to transport at least 40 passengers. This vehicle type is a surrogate for most Commercial Vehicles. Mid-sized vehicles are those the with a gross weight between 10,000 to 20,000 ponds, or vehicles designed to transport 20 to 39 passengers. Light/compact-sized vehicles are those smaller than the mid-size. Commercial vehicles are over-represented in collision involvement, and crashes that involve commercial vehicles have a higher severity level. Data collected from a survey of commercial vehicles and drivers was analyzed for statistical relationships between collision probability and causes related to driver behavior, driver training, and vehicle mechanical condition. Higher crash risk corresponds to lower driver experience, increased driver tendency to load a vehicle in excess of design capacity, operation of older or defective vehicles, and driver tendency to travel at excessive speeds. Based on the known factors influencing commercial vehicle crash probabilities, a number of potential safety countermeasures are suggested for further study in China.