Statistical assessment of water quality seasonality in large tropical reservoirs

Abstract

AbstractA statistical assessment was used to assess if a tropical reservoir had reached a stable condition, permitting the use of water quality models to predict the water quality dynamics of a water system under different climatic or management scenarios. This approach was applied to Aguamilpa Reservoir in western Mexico, one of the largest tropical reservoirs in the world. Water quality data collected by the National Water Commission, and hydrological and climatic data from the Federal Electricity Commission from the period of January 2000 to December 2007 served as the data base. Time‐series analysis identified three distinct homogeneous seasonal groups: (i) warm dry season, (ii) rainy season and (iii) cold dry season. The seasonal responses of water quality parameters (temperature, electrical conductivity, total suspended solids concentration, biochemical oxygen demand and total coliforms) were demonstrated through analysis of variance of the principal components.