Statistical aspects of earthquake source parameter estimation in the presence of signal generated noise

Abstract

Seismologists have developed models which relate observed ground motion to the physical parameters of the earthquake which caused it These models are based on an idealized model which approximates the behavior of the real earth. In this paper we will examine some of the uncertainties which cause observations to deviate from such models. These uncertainties include presence of contaminating noise and the wave scattering caused by the inhomogeneous nature of the earth. By modeling such uncertainties statistically, we are able to formulate a maximum -likelihood type procedure for model fitting and address the such issues as of the computation of standard errors and graphical diagnostics for goodness-of-fit. The paper illustrates the procedure on observations from a small Califomian earthquake.