Statistical and Grey Forecasting of the Inbound Tourism to Malawi

Abstract

Tourism is one of the fastest growing and complex industries in Malawi. This article is aimed at forecasting the future pattern of the tourism industry in Malawi from the year 2018 to 2028. The study has employed grey forecasting model EGM (1, 1, α, θ) to predict the future pattern of tourism based on the initial data sets sourced from the data base of the World Data over Malawi. The findings of this study showed that the grey forecasting model EGM (1, 1, α, θ) performed well in forecasting the future pattern of tourism by comparing with the linear regression and exponential regression. The forecast has revealed that the tourism industry will grow with an average of 20.84% by the year 2028 based on the current conditions. Following the present findings, the tourism industry should therefore continue improving the current conditions in order to attract more tourists. Furthermore, the industry should continue to supply tourism products and services that can satisfy the increasing demand of the international travel experiences as well as the future growing number such as constructing more standard hotels, proper transportation and communication.