Statistical and diagnostic evaluation of a new-generation urban dispersion modelling system against an extensive dataset in the Helsinki area

Abstract

We have developed a modelling system for predicting the traffic volumes, emissions from stationary and vehicular sources, and atmospheric dispersion of pollution in an urban area. This paper describes a comparison of the NO x and NO 2 concentrations predicted using this modelling system with the results of an urban air quality monitoring network. We performed a statistical analysis to determine the agreement between predicted and measured hourly time series of concentrations at four permanently located and three mobile monitoring stations in the Helsinki Metropolitan Area in 1996–1997 (at a total of ten urban and suburban measurement locations). At the stations considered, the so-called index of agreement values of the predicted and measured time series of the NO 2 concentrations vary between 0.65 and 0.82, while the fractional bias values range from −0.29 to +0.26. In comparison with corresponding results presented in the literature, the agreement between the measured and predicted datasets is good, as indicated by these statistical parameters. The seasonal variations of the NO 2 concentrations were analysed in terms of the relevant meteorological parameters. We also analysed the difference between model predictions and measured data diagnostically, in terms of meteorological parameters, including wind speed and direction (the latter separately for two wind speed classes), atmospheric stability and ambient temperature, at two monitoring stations in central Helsinki. The modelling system tends to overpredict the measured NO 2 concentrations both at the highest ( u⩾6 m s −1) and at the lowest wind speeds ( u<2 m s −1). For higher wind speeds, the modelling system overpredicts the measured NO 2 concentrations in certain wind direction intervals; specific ranges were found for both monitoring stations considered. The modelling system tends to underpredict the measured concentrations in convective atmospheric conditions, and overpredict in stable conditions. The possible physico-chemical reasons for these differences are discussed.