Statistical Analysis on the Trend and Causes of Crime in Ho Municipality

Abstract

This research work sought to estimate and analyze the causes and trend of crime in Ho Municipality. The research was carried out in Ho central of the Municipality where 102 respondents made up of police officers and prison officers were selected to complete a questionnaire asking them to indicate the level of importance attached to listed original factors considered to be the causes of crime in the Municipality. The raw data consists of 13 original factors subjected to correlation analysis to identify new composite factors that can explain the causes of crime in the Municipality. Using time series data (total quarterly crime for the major crime categories) covering the period of 2004 to 2014 obtained from the Regional crime unit of the Volta Regional command of the Ghana police service, and the prison service, an impact assessment model was obtained to determine the trend of crime in the municipality using time series analysis, the data was also used to forecast for the next six years. Information obtained from the field data was also used to determine the sex and age group that mostly engaged in crime in the Municipality. At the end, five factors were identified to be the major causes of crime, these are; parental neglect, poverty, unemployment, peer pressure and drug abuse. It has also been revealed that trend of crime is in the increase in the Municipality. Males and the age group of 16-35 years are found to engage in crime in the Municipality. Finally, we propose an alternative strategy to control crime by enhancing police efficiency that is by introducing volunteer reinforcement either by enlarging its size or by updating its technology, it is hoped that the findings of this research would prompt society to be mindful of criminal activities in the Municipality.