STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF WIND SPEED DISTRIBUTION WITH SINOP-TURKEY APPLICATION

Abstract

In this study, the wind energy
 potential of the Sinop region was analyzed statistically by using the Turkish
 State Meteorological Station’s hourly wind speed data between the years of
 2005-2014. The two- parameter Weibull and one-parameter Rayleigh probability
 distribution functions were used to determine the wind energy potential of the
 region. The probability
 distribution functions were derived from the cumulative function and used to
 calculate the mean wind speed and the variance of the actual data. The best way
 of representing the performance of the Weibull and Rayleigh distributions is to
 use the statistical parameters such as the correlation coefficient (R2),
 chi-square (χ2) and the root mean square error analysis (RMSE).  The results of the study showed that Sinop has a mean wind speed of 3.36
 m/s with a maximum value of 4.28 m/s in February of 2011, and a minimum value
 of 2.41 m/s in March of 2013, while the corresponding mean wind power density is approximately 33.31
 W/m2 for the whole year. In general, it was determined the wind speed
 is higher during some winter and spring months, notably February and March, and
 is lower during the autumn months. The Weibull distribution function was found
 to be more appropriate than the Rayleigh distribution function.