Statistical analysis of the state and prospects for the development of import substitution in Russia

Abstract

On the basis of official statistical data on the structure and existing risks of the formation of Russia's foreign trade turnover in comparison with other developed countries, the objective need for import substitution has been substantiated, the acceleration of which and an increase in the role in ensuring the country's economic growth depends not only on the effectiveness of measures taken by the state and the business community, but and from a clear quantitative assessment of its performance. A comprehensive assessment of the effectiveness of import substitution was carried out on the basis of a wide range of statistically reliable single indicators reflecting the impact of import substitution on the state and dynamics of development of the most important sectors of the national economy – its domestic production, exports, imports, and the socio-economic sphere. In order to model and calculate a complex indicator of the effectiveness of import substitution on the basis of the formed system of single indicators, the method of principal components was used, implemented in the Statistica application software package and which made it possible to compress the generated array of multidimensional information to a limited number of more informative features (the main component for each block of indicators) up to the final a comprehensive indicator of the effectiveness of import substitution. The indicators that have the greatest impact on the effectiveness of import substitution in each block of indicators have been identified. Based on the regression analysis, a high positive correlation was found between the integrated indicator of the effectiveness of import substitution and economic growth. Using the method of multicriteria optimization, the parameters of import substitution have been determined, which, in real economic conditions, at the prevailing rates and scales of GDP, enhance the positive impact of import substitution on economic growth.