Statistical analysis of the relationship between climate-induced maize yield and rainy-season precipitation across Inner Mongolia, North China

Abstract

Exploring possible relationships between climate-induced maize yield and rainy-season precipitation under climate change is fundamental to science-based decision for food security in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region (IMAR). To determine the relationship of maize yield with precipitation variables across IMAR during 1960–2012, we selected 11 precipitation indices of rainy season and divided IMAR into four sub-regions—west, middle, east, and northeast using principal component analysis and K-means clustering methods. Results show that climate-induced maize yield is more sensitive to precipitation variability in the west and middle IMAR. The most important precipitation factor that limits maize yield is moderate precipitation days in these two sub-regions. Moreover, west and middle Inner Mongolia was dominated by decreasing precipitation during the rainy season. Furthermore, the El Nino/La Nina-Southern Oscillation cycle has the significant influence on the rainy-season precipitation in the west and middle IMAR.