Statistical analysis of the position of the monsoon trough

Abstract

Using surface charts at 0330GMT, the movement of the monsoon trough during the months June to September 1990 at two fixed longitudes, namely 79°E and 85°E, is studied. The probability distribution of trough position shows that the median, mean and mode occur at progressively more northern latitudes, especially at 85°E, with a pronounced mode that is close to the northern-most limit reached by the trough. A spectral analysis of the fluctuating latitudinal position of the trough is carried out using FFT and the Maximum Entropy Method (MEM). Both methods show significant peaks around 7.5 and 2.6 days, and a less significant one around 40–50 days. The two peaks at the shorter period are more prominent at the eastern longitude. MEM shows an additional peak around 15 days. A study of the weather systems that occurred during the season shows them to have a duration around 3 days and an interval between systems of around 9 days, suggesting a possible correlation with the dominant short periods observed in the spectrum of trough position.