Statistical analysis of the information and communication infrastructure of the knowledge economy at the macro-level

Abstract

Subject. The article addresses the infrastructure of information and communication support of the knowledge economy at the macro level. Objectives. The study focuses on identification of trends and prospects for the development of the element base of the infrastructure of information and communication support to create Russia’s knowledge economy at the macro level. Methods. We employ methods of statistical, correlation-regression and logical analysis of basic parameters of the infrastructure of information and communication support of the knowledge economy at the macro level. Results. The paper presents results of statistical analysis of trends in basic parameters of Russia’s information and communication infrastructure at the macro level for 2010–2021. We calculated forecast scenarios of these parameters for the medium-term period (until 2026). Conclusions. The statistical analysis enabled to detect contradictory trends during 2010–2021 and suggest options for forecasting their values over the medium term (until 2026). The study defines positive trends and favorable forecast scenarios for availability of cellular communication among the population, broadband Internet access, local telephone network digitalization. Negative trends and unfavorable forecast are identified for the use of fixed telephony, digital terrestrial television and cable television programs. Problematic is the situation of high variability of the forecast in terms of dynamics of several analyzed indicators.