Statistical analysis of the development of the plant production industry by the example of changes in the average yield of grain crops in the XX century. Part 1. Period 1900 - 1933.

Abstract

The work is devoted to studying the development of the crop production industry in the twentieth century. The theory of cyclical production and change of technological structures is chosen as a working theory. The average yield of grain crops in the Russian Empire and the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic was determined to indicate production development. The choice of average grain yield is justified by its 'vital role in agriculture in the specified period. The change in the studied indicator is considered in the period from 1900 to 1933. The work provides a 'visual, graphical, historical, and statistical analysis of changes in the average yield of grain crops. The period from 1900 to 1933 is proposed to be divided into smaller periods consisting of H years, defined as small. For each small period, a statistical analysis is carried out, which includes calculating probabilistic characteristics, checking the average yield values for abnormal values, the presence of changes in the indicator during the period, and the nature of this change. Dividing the time interval into small periods allows us to study the change in yield in more detail and identify factors influencing this process. For each period, a hypothesis is put forward about the type of changes, and the acceptance or non-acceptance of the hypothesis is justified. The statistical analysis results are considered within the framework of past events identified during historical analysis. Building a model of changes in average yield during the period under review allows us to assess the industry’s past development and suggest possible future development scenarios. Analyzing the results of a statistical study in combination with historical context will provide a deeper understanding of the reasons for changes in yields and their impact on the development of the industry.