Statistical Analysis of Seasonal Temperature Variation and Thunderstorm Activity over Yola North-East Nigeria

Abstract

The study examines in detail the relationship between seasonal temperature and thunderstorm occurrence in one hand and thunderstorm characteristics over Yola, North- East, Nigeria in the other hand. These include annual fluctuations, diurnal and trend. Data for this work were extracted from the archive of Nigerian Meteorological Agency, Oshodi Lagos from 1970 - 1999 for analysis. The result shows that season temperature does not influence or have any impact on thunderstorm (TS) occurrence during the study period. It was however discovered that range in seasonal temperature inversely affect TS occurrence. The study shows that 85.37% of the total TS occurrence during the study period is attributed to or accounted for by seasonal temperature range. The lower the range in seasonal temperature the higher the TS expected to occur. This implies that the higher the temperature range, the most likely TS will not occur. The result on annual TS occurrence shows a decrease in thunderstorm activity over time during the study period. It was observed that more TS tend to occur during wet season than during dry season. Thunderstorm activity within Yola exhibitsa mono peak or a single maximum in August. Further analysis reveals that the diurnal pattern of thunderstorm occurrence shows a late evening peak. The study also reveals among other things that there is statistical difference in diurnal, seasonal and annual variation of thunderstorm at 95% level of confidence in the study area. Finally, it was revealed that there is significant relationship between seasonal range in temperature and TS occurrence over Yola throughout the period of study The study also shows that there are months in the study area without a peal of thunderstorm. Full understanding of thunderstorm occurrence will be of great help to policy makers. Death resulting from TS strike will be avoided if children are prevented from playing during the peak hours and when range in temperature is low especially during rainy season.