Abstract

ABSTRACT The U.S. Navy is in the process of re-evaluating its oil spill response preparedness. As part of that effort, the Navy and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have teamed up to continue development of a tool designed to help planners assess their response effectiveness: the Trajectory Analysis Planner (TAP). TAP is an interface to a database of thousands of modeled oil spill trajectories, an ensemble of trajectories that represent the population of all possible spills. The TAP interface helps response planners understand characteristics of the possible oil spills in a given region. With this understanding, they can not only plan for one or a few possible high-impact events, but can determine the best overall plan for many events, across a large spectrum of probabilities and levels of impact. This paper is the result of the joint NOAA-Navy project to extend the capabilities of TAP. The capabilities and interface of the current version of the program (TAP II) are presented, along with some of its limitations. The need and direction of the development of a new version (TAP III) that will address some of these limitations is discussed. This future approach will allow planners to assess how different response options are likely to influence the ultimate impact of an oil spill in a region.

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