Statistical analysis of metallic anomaly patterns at former air force bombing ranges

Abstract

This paper summarizes the findings of a statistical analysis of the locations of metallic anomalies detected at the Pueblo Precision Bombing Range Number 2 in Otero County, Colorado, and at the Victorville Precision Bombing Range in San Bernardino County, California. The purpose of the study is to explore whether statistical properties of the pattern of anomaly locations can be used to discriminate areas likely to contain unexploded ordnance (UXO) left over from previous bombing practice from those unlikely to contain UXO. Techniques for discriminating areas with and without UXO are needed because historic records have left an incomplete account of previous military training activities, so that locations historically used for target practice are often unknown. This study differs from previous research on metallic anomaly data at former military training ranges in that it analyzes the spatial pattern of the discrete locations of the anomalies, rather than the average number of anomalies per unit area. The results indicate that differences in spatial pattern may be a distinguishing feature between areas that were used for target practice and those that are unlikely to contain UXO, even when a large number of ferrous rocks and other inert metallic anomalies are present. We found that at both of the former bombing ranges, the anomaly patterns in sample areas that are distant from all known bombing targets are consistent with a complete spatial randomness pattern, while those near the target areas fit a radially symmetric, bivariate Gaussian pattern. Furthermore, anomaly location patterns generated by surveys with airborne metal detectors have the same statistical properties as the patterns generated by surveys with on-ground detectors, even though the airborne systems detect only a subset of the anomalies found by the ground-based detectors. Thus, pattern information revealed by airborne surveys with metal detectors may be useful in identifying areas where careful searches for UXO are needed.