Statistical Analysis of Landslide Susceptibility, Macerata Province (Central Italy)

Matteo Gentilucci,Marco Materazzi,Gilberto Pambianchi

doi:10.3390/hydrology8010005

Abstract

Every year, institutions spend a large amount of resources to solve emergencies generated by hydrogeological instability. The identification of areas potentially subject to hydrogeological risks could allow for more effective prevention. Therefore, the main aim of this research was to assess the susceptibility of territories where no instability phenomena have ever been detected. In order to obtain this type of result, statistical assessments of the problem cannot be ignored. In this case, it was chosen to analyse the susceptibility to landslide using a flexible method that is attracting great interest in the international scientific community, namely the Weight of Evidence (WoE). This model-building procedure, for calculating landslide susceptibility, used Geographic Information Systems (GIS) software by means of mathematical operations between rasters and took into account parameters such as geology, acclivity, land use, average annual precipitation and extreme precipitation events. Thus, this innovative research links landslide susceptibility with triggering factors such as extreme precipitation. The resulting map showed a low weight of precipitation in identifying the areas most susceptible to landslides, although all the parameters included contributed to a more accurate estimate, which is necessary to preserve human life, buildings, heritage and any productive activity.

Highlights

The Italian territory is subject to a high level of hydrogeological instability and the province of Macerata is no exception with 7.3% [1] of the territory affected by landslide hazard of grade 3 and 4, where 4 represents the maximum hazard
Climate change is a trigger for increased hydrogeological risk, it is largely generated by an increase in greenhouse gases which absorbs heat and retain it by gradually releasing it [4], this energy growth, affects both precipitation and temperature
A lot of research has been carried out to study the impact of climate change on hydrogeological risk, especially landslides [6], there are other factors that greatly influence terrain stability, such as land use [7]

Summary

Introduction

State of the Art. The Italian territory is subject to a high level of hydrogeological instability and the province of Macerata is no exception with 7.3% [1] of the territory affected by landslide hazard of grade 3 and 4, where 4 represents the maximum hazard. The Italian territory is subject to a high level of hydrogeological instability and the province of Macerata is no exception with 7.3% [1] of the territory affected by landslide hazard of grade 3 and 4, where 4 represents the maximum hazard It follows that landslides susceptibility, which is the statistical likelihood of a landslide occurring in an area, is a very important issue that needs to be studied in depth, because of the huge resources that are absorbed to deal with emergencies. A lot of research has been carried out to study the impact of climate change on hydrogeological risk, especially landslides [6], there are other factors that greatly influence terrain stability, such as land use [7]

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