Statistical analysis of extreme temperatures in India in the period 1951–2020

Abstract

Extreme temperatures are directly related to the occurrence of atmospheric extreme events, such as draughts, wildfires, and pollution level increases in urban areas. Policy makers, as well as society, can address such phenomenon by developing and applying methods which estimate and anticipate maximum temperature occurrences. In this research, we aim to develop a spatiotemporal model which analyzes maximum temperature trends values in the Indian 543 microregions between 1951 and 2020. In 27% of those, a maximum temperature above 45∘C was observed, at least in a year. Our analysis indicates further that 80% microregions have maximum temperatures above above 40∘C. Additionally, the results unveiled that East, Southwest, and Northwest microregions were the ones where the maximum temperatures had a higher increase with 2∘C being the average. The model developed is based on a Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) methodology, to estimate the maximum temperature values from 20 and 50 years. The projection for 20 years showed that in 15.83% of those microregions, at least one occurrence of a maximum temperature above 45∘C would occur; while in 50 years, it would happen in 21.54% of the microregions analyzed.